A Verizon iPhone in 2009 Not likely.

about the iPhone no longer requiring an AT&T contract for operation have been a staple of discussion almost since the device launched in 2007. They appeal to people who either are unhappy with AT&T's services, or are locked into a long-term contract with another carrier. Tales of a Verizon iPhone coming in 2009 have been among the quickest to spread. Even that somehow cycle back into current RSS spark another round of reporting, rumors and hoopla.

But the Verizon iPhone speculation is unlikely to come true in the short term. There's a very good reason for this -- the Apple/AT&T exclusivity deal. While the terms of the deal have not been disclosed, the give 2010 as the earliest possible date for the deal's expiration.

Both AT&T and Apple have a lot to gain from their exclusive arrangement. The benefits to AT&T seem the most obvious -- the iPhone is the No. 1 seller at AT&T, and about 40% of its 4.3 million customers who activated an iPhone in the second half of 2008 were new to AT&T, . Moreover, the churn rate among iPhone owners .

While it may seem less obvious why Apple would lock itself into selling phones exclusively through AT&T, there are good reasons for doing so. Namely, subsidies. AT&T is selling the iPhone for US$199 with a 2-year contract, but to do so, it is paying . Reports say that is going back to Apple from AT&T. Add on top of the subsidies the concessions Apple got from AT&T that allow it to sell applications and music with , and the exclusive arrangement is a pretty sweet deal for Apple, too.

The Industry Standard prediction market agrees that is looking extremely unlikely before summer, with community consensus under 30%. Unless the to outlaw exclusive mobile phone partnerships are successful, it doesn't look like the Apple/AT&T agreement will be ending any time soon.