2002 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle

VoIP is the transmission of voice conversations (phone-to-phone) over packet-switched IP data networks. Despite its long-promised cost savings, it is still at an early stage of commercialization and is primarily in the trial stage. This is largely due to a variety of prevailing risks, such as latencies, lack of quality of service, scalability issues and standards compliance. However, some major deployments are scheduled by YE02, and their success will determine the speed of VoIP into mainstream.

Entering the Plateau

Wireless LANs - also called WLANs, Wireless Fidelity (Wi-Fi) and, in particular, 802.11b -- are experiencing unprecedented growth, as prices have declined significantly. The WLAN successor, 802.11a is "just around the corner" and presents major technological advantages over 802.11b networks: more speed and channels, and much less interference with other technologies. Enterprises are likely to begin broad deployment of 802.11a in 2003.

Virtual private networks (VPNs) are communications systems that use public networks to transport private intracompany and intercompany information. Although standards wars and problematic issues remain (over the IP SecuritySecurity protocol, specifically), whole industries, such as automotive, have moved to VPNs as the basis of extranets for e-business and other activity. Alles zu Security auf CIO.de

Bottom Line: Technology planners should focus on the value of a technology to their enterprise, rather than external media perceptions of the technology. Even if the Trough of Disillusionment generates negative media attention, planners who have not investigated a potentially high-impact technology at this stage should begin evaluation at this point, because most technologies do emerge from the trough, albeit at different speeds. For technologies that are of marginal impact, enterprises should wait until the technology is entering the plateau, as the additional risk of early adoption is not warranted.