Africa nears saturation point for mobile players

Some observes say that even with the sector in flux, international investments are not likely to dry up, as some have feared.

"While there may be some areas where investments are declining; the continent has a mobile penetration rate of almost 50 percent, so there is at least another 50 percent to go," Christelis said. "While this will mean lower ARPUs as lower income segments of the market adopt the technology, operators will figure out, and have in some parts of the world, ways of making money from the market."

The consolidation in Africa's GSM by big companies such as MTN, Zain, Vodacom and Orange is likely to make their operations profitable as relaxed regulations allow "one network" services where losses in one country can be absorbed by better performance in other countries.

Zain's recent sale of its African operations, however, is indicative of the fact that the African GSM market has probably reached its peak, in terms of players coming into the market -- as it moves into the next phase of converged services and market consolidation by bigger players.

Regulation will play a bigger role in safeguarding the smaller players, who in some cases will have to merge in order to survive. South Africa's long-standing interconnection debate, meanwhile, has raised the issue of the regulators' role in forcing bigger players to come up with rates that will favor survival of smaller telcos.