In this study
How fast will Web services opportunity develop, and which will be the largest vertical and size class opportunities? Is Web services a long-term trend? This study details the forecast for Western Europe spending on hardware, software, and services used to implement Web services projects in each of seven industries and three enterprise size classes. The total Western European Web services opportunity will grow from $108 million in 2002 to $7.8 billion in 2007, giving a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 135%.
According to James Weir, senior analyst with the European Services Group, and Nathaniel Martinez, research manager with the European Software Group, "The Web services opportunity in Europe is primed for rapid growth. Hardware, software, and services vendors need to take advantage of the Web services standards."
Although Web services is in the early stage of customer adoption, it is clear that this new ebusiness architecture has the potential to become the dominant distributed computing architecture. Based on behavioral simulations models, IDC expects the following:
The current forecast of Web services adoption is based on a survey of enterprises completed in 2002. These Web services forecast are a product of the IDC Web Services Adoption Model. The model simulates the adoption of Web services projects and forecasts numerous segments simultaneously, including feedback among segments.
The "dynamic assumption" of the model is that all enterprises in the universe are qualified to become prospects and all will eventually adopt Web services. The timing for adoption is the question. IDC believes that because Web services is such a fundamental shift, the adoption will be similar, among all sizes of enterprises, to the near universal adoption of the PC, networking, and the connection to the Internet.
Current adoption dynamics
Project spending by IT segment
The total Western European Web services opportunity, including hardware, software, and services, will grow from $108 million in 2002 to $7.8 billion in 2007, giving a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 135%. The distribution of the total opportunity between the three areas will change during the forecast period: In 2002, software spending will be 52%, hardware spending 17%, and services spending 31%. In 2007, software will be the smallest segment.
Project spending by Enterprise size
By enterprise size, project spending is weighted towards large firms during the forecast period. In 2002, large enterprises make up 44% of the $108 million forecast, medium-sized enterprises make up 3%, while small enterprises make up 53%. By 2007, this pattern has changed markedly, with large enterprises making up 83%, medium-sized enterprises making up 7%, while small enterprises make up 10%.
Market IT Strategies
The adoption of Web services will take place in two broadphases:
Definitions
IDC has sought to carefully restrict the definition to one that we believe is accepted by the majority of IT respondents. By IDC's definition, the use of XML alone is not sufficient to qualify as a Web services project.
Web services are Internet technology-based "machine-to-machine services" that are based on what IDCcalls the WSA. WSA is a distributed computing model using a standardized approach to dynamic component connectivity and interoperability that relies on self-describing components. In a WSA, components interoperate remotely at run time using open connectivity standards, such as IP (Internet Protocol) and selected XML-based standards, including.