In 2001, the Internet security software markets endured a "perfect storm" - the combination of the economic recession and the events of September 11. The year began on a sunny note, with the major players all reporting strong year-over-year growth from 2000. However, by midyear, the economic recession in the United States had started to take its toll, spilling over to the Western European economy. The tragic events of September 11 added to the malaise. The software market also had to adapt to the growing trend toward the deployment of security appliances. In addition to the recession and the events of September 11, the accounting changes adopted by Computer Associates (CA) added another dimension to the "storm". CA's change in its accounting methods had a major impact on the year-over-year growth of both the security market and the software market as a whole.
Security 3As and secure content management (SCM) are the largest segments and have a combined market share of 75%. In comparison firewalls/VPNs, encryption and intrusion detection software share the remaining 25%, with firewall/VPNs being the larger segment among this subgroup.
Although security software has failed to meet initial expectations, it rode out the storm rather well compared to other IT markets. The Western European Internet security software market still managed to achieve double-digit growth (27.3%) from 2000 to 2001 and topped the $1.6 billion mark in Western European revenue.
The Western European security software market is still highly fragmented, with no single vendor gaining more than 10% market share. Symantec is the new undisputed European security software champion ($165 million). Firewall software dominator CheckPoint comes in at second overall with a revenue of $133 million in 2001. Last year's leader, Network Associates, drops to third place with a 2001 revenue of $124 million. The top three vendors - Symantec, CheckPoint Software Technologies and Network Associates - managed to achieve double-digit growth. Computer Associates' new accounting model has resulted in a 29.9% drop for 2001 revenue figures.
IDC believes the Western European Internet security software market will rebound in 2002 and continue to show strong growth through 2006. The total Western European Internet security software market will reach $4.3 billion by 2006, representing a 17% CAGR. Market growth will increase as enterprises continue to open access to more data by employees, partners and customers. Corporations will look for security solutions that are centrally managed and can address both cost and security concerns.
Key Market Trends
Antivirus software products are becoming an integral part of a modular architecture that embraces all secure content management (SCM) technologies. IDC defines SCM as technologies that include antivirus, Internet access control and management, email scanning, and malicious and mobile code. We are starting to see SCM technologies providing a single point of administration, policy management, and logging and reporting for other scanning technologies such as intrusion detection, vulnerability assessment, and firewalls.
Encryption software is the foundation for security and privacy. Although it has always been important, it has gained renewed emphasis as new privacy protection regulations are mandated. Government regulations will require improved encryption for compliance. Although government regulations are focused on the healthcare industry (physicians, hospitals, and healthcare insurance providers), the financial industry is also grappling with a parallel set of privacy mandates, and we believe that these regulations will have an impact on other industries as well. Encryption will be required since stored data must be protected from unauthorized viewing.
Firewalls are the mainstay of any security program. The need for firewalls remains strong, and the growth in this market was better than predicted last year. As always-on Internet access grows (with digital subscriber line [DSL] and cable modems) and as more companies allow telecommuting, the need for distributed and personal firewalls will grow. Distributed firewalls are not standalone. Instead, they include management functionality, which allows enterprises or service providers to centrally manage the firewall to ensure that it remains within a stated policy, receives software updates, and has VPN management.
Security management will be the next hot area in the 3A market. Organizations are asking for an enterprisewide security management solution with a central point of control. Security management solutions focus on increasing end-user productivity, reducing administrator errors, and enabling enforcement of user access security policies.
Intrusion detection and vulnerability assessment (IDnA) product revenue in 2001 continued to grow rapidly, exceeding our generous forecasts. Vulnerability assessment (VA) tools continue to represent the majority of software revenue in this market. However, the gap between VA revenue and IDS revenue closed significantly. IDC believes that VA will eventually split into pure vulnerability scanners and VA as an integrated component of a complete security policy and management suite. As the IDnA market matures, the products covered within the market will become more specialized to meet targeted customer needs. Initially, specialization will come from start-ups and smaller companies, but eventually the features and products will be purchased or duplicated by market leaders.
The terrorist attacks of September 11 will change the way security is viewed. IDC believes that the boundaries between physical and information security will dissolve, industry and government will cooperate on "critical infrastructure security," but privacy will suffer. The policy for determining who you are (i.e., authentication or identity) and what you can do (i.e., authorizations) will become paramount. IDC believes security is now a mandatory consideration, not just a discretionary purchase.
About this Study
This report covers the highly fragmented Western European market for security software (SW) products. Security software products comprise the following five IDC markets:
The report provides detailed historical Western European revenues and market shares of security software vendors from 2000 to 2001. The 2001 top five vendors are shown for each of the five security submarkets in all 16 Western European countries.
Market revenue forecasts for the overall security software market are included for a five-year period from 2002 to 2006 in each of the 16 countries. Additionally, market revenue forecasts are included for each of the five security software market segments from 2002 to 2006.
A discussion of key market trends based on IDC's most recent knowledge of the Western European security software market and its major players is provided. Furthermore, this report dissolves the security myth by taking the analysis beyond security hype and tech-speak. It ultimately provides a comprehensive yet judicious overview of the Western European security software landscape in the dynamic networked economy. The report primarily answers three basic questions:
IDC's Western European Security Software Forecast and Analysis, 2001 - 2006, gives immediate market insight and is the most comprehensive European security research source available today. As this publication indicates, security is the chief enabler to both network empowerment and ebusiness. Thus, this report is valuable to both the experienced security insider as well as those that consider security an important factor for moving business goals forward.
Weitere Informationen zu dieser Studie erhalten Sie von Katja Schmalen, IDC Central Europe GmbH, unter 069/90502-115 oder kschmalen@idc.com .