Zukunft der Software

A Land Where Giants Rule / Open Source Slays Goliath

Von Christopher Koch
In ihrem Ausblick auf die zukünftige Anbieterlandschaft entwirft unsere Schwesterzeitschrift zwei Szenarien: Es kommt zu einer Hyperkonsolidierung, und CIOs werden zu Geiseln der Software- und Services-Konglomerate, oder: europäische und asiatische Unternehmen verhelfen dem Open Source-Modell zum Durchbruch.

Quelle: CIO, USA

[Szenario eins]

A Land Where Giants Rule

SOFTWARE VENDORS ARE like dinosaurs--they live in an environment that encourages them to grow really big to survive.

The bigger the vendor, the safer CIOs feel. It's not that CIOs are happier with the behemoths--in fact most of them hate the endless cycles of upgrades and complex maintenance and support agreements that the big vendors offer. But a big vendor promises more longevity and suites that are often easier to integrate than the best-of-breed applications from many smaller vendors. The lumbering beasts rule not because they are better or faster or more efficient than their smaller counterparts, but because they solve some--though far from all--of the CIO's integration problem.

And that's why CIOs will keep shoveling food to the big beasts and starving the little ones through 2010. The only other segment to get a healthy feeding will be outsourcers and services vendors that offer software bundled together with integration, upgrades and customizations as part of the price. Call it hyper consolidation of the software market.

Unless Web services lives up to its promise--and we predict it won't--integration will remain a huge burden that drives up the overall cost and complexity of IT. The trend toward outsourcing will continue as many companies decide that their CIOs cannot solve the integration problem on their own. Web services will remain tightly controlled by a handful of large vendors that have no economic incentive to fix the problem. That would simply free customers to choose smaller, more nimble competitors.

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